Technology Tussles: The Trilemma Strikes Back
Gerard I. Fox, George Yarrow & Harold Hutchinson
We have written before about the need for effortful and holistic thinking in the context of global decarbonisation, and about the perils of disconnecting local actions from global outcomes by retreat into a ‘net-zero in one country’ mindset. In this RPI Insights blog we highlight the dangers of partial thinking associated with indulgence of the false prophet of universal technology solution(s), blindness to potential ‘concentration risk’ and the resulting creation of systemic vulnerabilities, inadequate thinking around the physical resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of a changing climate, and reluctance to acknowledge either the regional realpolitik of the energy transition or the implicit policy tensions, uncertainties, and trade-offs around how it unfolds.
The End of Net Zero
Gerard I. Fox, George Yarrow & Harold Hutchinson
In this RPI Insights blog we continue to emphasise a central theme of earlier pieces: the dangers of taking an overly narrow view of policy challenges, whether that be the result of failure to recognise wider, salient features of a broader context, or of taking unduly narrow view of target outcomes in policy responses to the challenges. The same theme is to be found in earlier RPI critiques of ‘pixelation’ in regulatory assessment, grounded in an analogy with perceptions of a digital picture which are drawn to a relatively small bloc of pixels and focus disproportionately on it, to the neglect of all else. The blog contains a striking quotation from Keynes, who was ever unpixelated.
Markets vs. Regulation? Drop the ‘Versus’!
Gerard I. Fox, George Yarrow & Harold Hutchinson
This RPI Insights blog is concerned with the meaning of the word ‘market’. The term appears often in economic and political discourse, usually accompanied by some other word: there are references to ‘free markets’, or to ‘oligopolistic markets’, or to ‘market failure’. But what is the nature of this thing that is ‘free’, or ‘oligopolistic’, or has ‘failed’, in the latter case usually claimed in the context of some call for a deus ex machina, in the form of a regulatory intervention, to ‘fix’ the problems.
Climate Policy: ‘Tain’t what you do, it's the way that you do it
Gerard I. Fox, George Yarrow & Harold Hutchinson
The standard approach to climate change policy runs as follows. If a nation reduces its own carbon emissions, the bulk of any climate-related benefits will be enjoyed by other countries, since for global climate change purposes it does not matter where emissions are made. Therefore, if each nation acts individualistically, there is an ‘externality’ (a conferred but unrewarded benefit) in play, giving rise to egregiously inadequate incentives for carbon reduction. Consequently, international treaties, in which nations commit to levels of carbon reduction collectively, are of the utmost significance.
Re-thinking Climate Change Policies: A tale of two externalities
Gerard I. Fox & George Yarrow
In this short paper, George Yarrow & I argue that, in the context of climate change policies, the nature and significance of any potentially problematic economic externalities are functions of strategic policy choices: that is, they vary according to the particular policy strategy chosen. The traditionally identified externality – that the benefits of carbon abatement efforts by any one country are mostly enjoyed by other countries – comes from strategies that are conceptualised in terms of determining quantities (of carbon emissions or abatement), an approach to economic policy that was adopted in Soviet-style central planning. By leading to external effects that then call for difficult-to-achieve correction, in effect the quantitative planning system establishes self-created obstacles to attaining that which is desired. Science and technology policy approaches based on sharing of knowledge and know-how are shown to have very different implications for the nature and significance of any associated externalities. The development of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine is given as an example of the possible, alternative, strategic approaches.
The Renewables Integration Challenge
Gerard I. Fox
Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) from wind and solar is frequently cited as the solution to UK Electricity decarbonisation. According to some, we are to become the "Saudi Arabia of wind." 40GW of offshore wind capacity is planned by 2030. Estimates of how much VRE we can rely on to power the grid ranges from 50 to 80%. But just how practical is this enterprise of incrementally transforming the grid to rely on intermittent renewables? In this short paper for the Regulatory Policy Institute, I identify the key questions, challenges, issues and some possible solutions.
When an irresistable force meets an immutable object: Is Bitcoin a digital stranded asset or monetary MySpace?
Ben Ashby, Gerard I. Fox & Ben Usher
In this piece for the CFA Institute, my Good Governance Capital colleagues Ben Ashby, Derek Usher & I explore the ESG challenges presented by Bitcoin.
Institutional Innovation Initiative & the Energy Transition
Gerard I. Fox
The Energy Transition represents an unprecedented challenge for Policy Makers. The speed and magnitude of emissions abatement demanded by the 2008 Climate Change Act, whose 4th & 5th carbon budgets are currently off course, combined with the subsequent increased ambition signalled by the UK 2050 Net-zero commitment made in 2019, along with the recent course-correcting commitment to target a 68% fall in emissions by 2030 vs. the 1990 baseline, requires the rapid promotion and diffusion of clean energy innovation with action extending to the hard-to-abate sectors dominated by buildings, industry and transport. In this short paper for the Regulatory Policy Institute, I outline some of the public policy dilemmas thrown up by these ambitions.
Opportunities for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies to Contribute to Clean Growth in the UK
Paul E. Dodds, Anthony Velazquez Abad, Will McDowall, Gerard I. Fox
This paper was commissioned by the UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Supergen Hub to examine the opportunities for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies to contribute to clean growth. It assesses the strength of the UK hydrogen and fuel cells sector using a range of metrics and recommends actions to underpin the development of a substantial export-focused industry. Having my Masters research included in this paper led by Professor Paul Dodds was an enormous compliment.
No Mr. Musk, Bitcoin is not cash!
Ben Ashby & Gerard I. Fox
In this paper, my Good Governance Capital colleague Ben Ashby and I analyse the world of Bitcoin and its impact on the finance industry. There has been a rush by investors to draw up plans to either directly benefit, or even just survive, the rapid changes in the financial and technological landscape. They are right to be worried. There are profound changes afoot both from technology and also the unknown consequences of the large-scale monetary experiments by Central Banks.
Reset to Sunset: A proposal to break the impasse in the UK-EU trade talks
Martin P. Smith & Gerard I. Fox
In this October 2020 paper for the Conservative European Forum, Martin Smith & I explored possible solutions to the UK-EU trade talk impasse. Some of the proposed mechanisms were to some extent absorbed into the final deal. The paper's ideas are still relevant today as our relationship with the EU evolves. A very abridged version of the paper was carried on the Conservative Home website on 15th December 2020.
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